Sudan referendum must go ahead

Only a year is left before southern Sudan is due to hold a referendum on independence – a key provision of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended a decades-long civil war that left two million dead. Since then, the tragedy in Darfur has overshadowed the tension in the south. Now Sudan and the world have no time to lose in acting to save the peace.

It was never certain that a referendum would take place at all. Such predictability is precluded by the violent regime of Sudan’s president, Omar al-Bashir – who was indicted on genocide charges by the International Criminal Court last year – and the fact that a vote will probably favour secession.
But any attempt to prevent the referendum or pre-empt its outcome would immediately reignite the civil war. It must go ahead, even if a vote for secession will challenge both Sudan and the outside world. The best that can be hoped for is an orderly transition should secession indeed be the outcome. Managing such a transition must now be the aim of Sudanese politicians and the international community.

The conflict is made worse by the presence of oil in the south, which raises the stakes in whether the south is controlled from Khartoum or Juba.

Another wild card is Mr Bashir’s indictment. The Sudanese army’s crimes in Darfur amply justified the ICC’s warrant. But justice does not always provide the luxury of also creating good political incentives. Mr Bashir may want to undermine the referendum unless he can exact a price in the form of regained international legitimacy.

And yet, the peace treaty is working, however imperfectly. There has been no shortage of clashes and tensions, but mechanisms for resolving them peacefully have grown in strength. Last July, the permanent court of arbitration in the Hague ruled to split the disputed Abiey province, an oil-producing region claimed by both the north and the south. Promisingly, both said they would accept the ruling. And in December, a deal was reached that the south could secede if a simple majority of a 60 per cent turnout agreed.

The world must help Sudan steer through this process – without taking advantage of it. Above all, this applies to China, which is deeply embroiled in its oil sector. Preparations for the legal mess of an eventual secession cannot wait.

For the sake of their people and the credibility of future peace treaties Sudanese leaders must stick to the CPA’s terms. On this war-torn continent, its success is vital.

Source:ft.com/